El mito sobre la «rentabilidad» de la soja en Paraguay -No es del 69%-

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Ya que se vuelve a tocar el tema del impuesto a la soja, recorren por los medios varios artículos de algunos “expertos” quienes estiman que la rentabilidad de la soja en el Paraguay es del 69%, haciéndole un 6–0 a los negocios piramidales y a las tasas usurarias de las tarjetas de crédito de hace algunos años.

En el debate en el que estamos, los productores tienen que ser escuchados y creo que hay que “desmitificar” algunos números como ya lo hacía mi colega Javier Alonso.

La mencionada alta rentabilidad del sistema sojero es el cálculo de costos del IICA, que basa los supuestos en la zafra 2012/13 a un dólar de 4.378 y con una soja en Chicago arriba de 520 US$, lo que daba al productor un valor de venta de 464,5 US$/Ton libre en Campo descontado los premios y fletes.

El estudio del IICA consideraba en aquel entonces:

· Costos de Alquiler de Tierra: 114,2 US$/ha.

· Costos administrativos y de recursos humanos: 29,2 US$/ha.

· Preparación del suelo, Aplicación de herbicidas: 78,4 US$/ha.

· Costos de siembra (Tractor + Semilla + Fertilizantes): 296,5 US$/ha.

· Aplicación de insumos (Herbicidas + Insecticidas + Fungicidas) : 245 US$/ha.

· Costo de cosecha (Maquinarias + flete): 69 US$/ha.

TOTAL COSTO POR HA en Zafra 2012/13: 832,3 US$/ha.

INGRESOS POR HA (2,967 ton/ha*464,5 US$/TON): 1.378,17 US$/ha.

TOTAL MARGEN NETO PARA LE PRODUCTOR ZAFRA 2012/13: 545,87 US$/ha (65,5%)

Sin embargo, el Estudio del IICA no consideraba ya en ese entonces: el valor real del alquiler de la tierra (el cual No es 114 US$/ha), y tampoco consideraba las amortizaciones y depreciaciones de las maquinarias agrícolas.

Hoy, pasando ya 4 años de los pujantes precios de las commodities y con una tendencia muy leve de recuperación recién para el 2020, el tema es que:

Ni el tipo de cambio está a 4.378, ni los costos del alquiler de la tierra son 114 US$/ha ni los ingresos del sector son 1.378 US$/ha y si vamos a debatir, tenemos que actualizar los números.

En primer lugar, el Alquiler de la tierra no es 114 US$ por hectárea.

En Itapúa y Alto Paraná se llega a pagar más de 500 US$ por hectárea por año.

Considerando que el productor puede tener 2 cosechas de otro producto en el año, vamos a simplificar que el Costo de la tierra es de 250 US$/Hectárea.

Para simplificación, sólo actualicemos la variable del valor de la renta de la tierra y los precios actuales, dejando todos las demás variables constantes de manera de ver solamente según el modelo anterior:

· Costo de tierra, Arrendamiento: 250 US$/ha

· Demás gastos administrativos (IICA): 29,2 US$/ha

· Preparación de suelo (Aplicación herbicidas) (IICA): 78,4 US$/ha

· Costos de siembra (tractor + Semilla+ fertilizantes) (IICA): 296,5 US$/ha

· Aplicación Herbicidas + Fungicidas + Insecticidas (IICA): 245 US$/ha

· Cosecha + Fletes (IICA): 69 US$/ha

SUBTOTAL COSTOS DIRECTOS DE PRODUCCIÓN: 968,10 US$/ha.

Sólo para modo de ejemplo, Si a esto sumamos unos 150 US$/ha en la cuenta de Amortizaciones y depreciaciones nos da 1.118,10 US$/Ha.

Ahora, usando los mismos números del IICA, veamos el escenario de Ingresos actualizando a los valores de la soja de hoy y el rendimiento promedio país que está en 3.100 kilogramos /ha:

Ingresos (Rendimiento 3,100 TON/ha* 320 US$/ton)= 992 US$/hectárea

(-) Costos de producción directos :968,1 US$

MARGEN DEL PRODUCTOR: 23,90 US$/ha. RENTABILIDAD: 2,46%

Un margen al productor en el que apenas empata el costo, y esto considerando los precios actuales de 320 US$/ton.

Y, ¿dónde quedan las amortizaciones y depreciaciones?

Recordemos que el campo requiere mucha inversión; un productor compra una cosechadora de 380.000 US$ , un tractor de 200.000 US$ y alguno que otro implemento que en 5 años tiene que volver a cambiar porque está totalmente depreciado y sin vida útil!

El sector productivo viene reclamando que hay deudas contraídas por inversiones maquinarias, silos, cosechadoras y otros.

Así lo dicen algunos artículos periodísticos en distintos medios de comunicación: “La morosidad del sistema bancario pasó en el caso de la agricultura del 0,64% al 1,34%, 110% aumento” (5 días, 13/03/2016), “Productores no están pudiendo cumplir con sus compromisos financieros” (5 días, 22/02/2016), “El 30% de sojeros piden refinanciación de deudas bancarias” (Ultima Hora 05/11/2015). “Alto Endeudamiento complica a la soja” (ABC, 22/10/2016).

¿Pareciera lógico acaso que un sistema productivo con 69% de rentabilidad solicite refinanciación de sus pasivos?

No, porque el agricultor apenas está teniendo un saldo positivo que le permite volver a tener posibilidades de seguir sembrando.

EL TEMA DE LA RECAUDACIÓN DEL IRAGRO

La opción por la que el Estado fue inteligente a la hora de aceptar gravar la renta y no las exportaciones en sencillamente porque éste se caracteriza por ser un impuesto de regulación automática que responde a la política fiscal.

Créditos Imágen: Campo de soja en Itapúa, Zafra 2017, proveída por el Autor.

En macroeconomía entendemos que cuando una economía se calienta por así decirlo y los niveles de renta generada son altas, este sistema automático recauda más y quita del sistema un porcentaje de la renta que se utilizaría para consumo y lo recauda en mayor proporción para hacer cumplir la Política Fiscal.

Y, en años como estas 3 últimas zafras, cuando las rentas disminuyen, pues el impuesto a la renta toma su función en el sentido anticíclico recaudando menos y no desincentivando el consumo sino lo contrario e incentivando la inversión.

Es exactamente lo que ocurre en estos 3 años en el que el IRAGRO, que desde que entró en vigencia está cumpliendo su función anticíclica.

En el 2015 Se recaudaron unos 280.323 millones y en el 2016, 253.481 millones de Guaraníes, en las actividades agropecuarias que incluyen a cerca de 49.757 productores contribuyente en unas 3,5 millones de hectáreas en nuestro país dedicadas a la agricultura.

LOS PRODUCTORES ESTÁN PAGANDO SUS IMPUESTOS

Si dividimos que en el 2015 se pagaron unos 48 Millones de USD en impuestos, y en el 2016, unos 45 Millones de USD, en un total de 3,5 millones de hectáreas, esto nos da que el productor pagó en promedio 13,71 USD/Hectárea en el 2015 y 12,85 USD/hectárea en el 2016 en concepto de impuestos, que es correlativo al 10% del margen que pudo haber obtenido el productor en esos años.

Haciendo el cálculo, se entiende que esos 13,71 USD/Hectárea corresponden a unos 137,1 USD/hectárea de renta en el 2015 y 128,5 USD/Hectárea de renta positiva en el 2016.

Esta renta fue real, fue así de baja y los productores pagaron sus impuestos en relación a esa renta obtenida.

El productor hubiera querido tener mejor rentabilidad pero eso no fue este año ni el año pasado. Aquí no hay secretos.

Estimados amigos, los números son abiertos y de público conocimiento.

La ganancia de la soja no es 69%, y los productores sí están pagando sus impuestos de acuerdo al ciclo económico y de acuerdo la coyuntura actual que se vive en el campo.

Pues Así como que el bajo crecimiento del PIB el año pasado se dio por el efecto de la agricultura, así también la recaudación de impuestos se dio por la misma razón.

Se están pagando los impuestos dentro de las reglas de juego que son la aplicación del IRAGRO como un mecanismo anticíclico acompañando la agricultura.

Los productores esperamos que vengan tiempos mejores, donde los márgenes mejoren y así también se estarán pagando los impuestos en relación a la ganancia de cada uno.

Por Guillermo Zub

El Parlante

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