Experto vaticina una caída estrepitosa del dólar y el fin de su supremacía como moneda de reserva mundial

Experto vaticina una caída estrepitosa del dólar y el fin de su supremacía como moneda de reserva mundial

Stephen Roach, investigador principal de la Universidad de Yale y ex presidente de la multinacional financiera estadounidense Morgan Stanley Asia, advirtió que el dólar sufrirá una caída brusca.

El economista afirmó que la era del dólar estadounidense puede estar llegando a su fin y pronostica una disminución del 35%, frente a sus principales rivales, citando aumentos en el déficit de la nación y ahorros cada vez menores.

Durante una entrevista otorgada el lunes a un programa de la CNBC, indicó que el ascenso de China y el desprendimiento de los Estados Unidos de sus socios comerciales, está preparando el escenario para un dramático debilitamiento de la moneda estadounidense en los próximos años, y que esta situación probablemente pondrá fin a la supremacía de la unidad monetaria como la moneda de reserva mundial.

«El dólar va a caer muy, muy bruscamente», dijo en la entrevista.

En un artículo de opinión que escribió la semana pasada en Bloomberg, Roch ya había advertido lo mismo, indicando que «la era del privilegio exorbitante de dólar estadounidense como principal moneda de reserva mundial, está llegando a su fin».

En ese artículo, el economista dijo que la economía de EE. UU. ya está «estresada» por el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19.

El lunes, Roach mencionó que el déficit fiscal de Estados Unidos, a medida que el gobierno gasta billones de dólares, en un esfuerzo por mitigar el daño de COVID-19, solo puede empeorar las cosas. Además subrayó que la moneda de China, el yuan, puede obtener un mayor atractivo por parte de los inversores, ya que Beijing atraviesa una fase de reformas estructurales que podrían cambiar la economía pesada del sector manufacturero del país a una más centrada en los servicios y otra con un mayor crecimiento liderado por los consumidores.

Roach argumenta que aunque el dólar esté debilitado, beneficiaría las exportaciones de Estados Unidos a corto plazo, pero sería más problemático a largo plazo.

Las preocupaciones sobre la economía global han alentado a la compra masiva de dólares, debido a la percepción de los Estados Unidos como una economía y moneda estables, sin embargo, Roach dice que los déficits crecientes eventualmente cambiarán esa percepción y le darán un golpe al dólar.

El Parlante

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