Los intelectuales y el eterno plan de engordar al elefante

Intelectuales y sus planes para el país

Con muchos asuntos y poca inspiración, intentaré en este artículo hacer una crítica a algunas de las propuestas sugeridas por los intelectuales nacionales publicada aquí (www.ultimahora.com, 2020), como también subrayar el entusiasmo profesional de los muchachos de la SET a quienes suelo ver en los medios intentando poner miel a un té de ajo con cebolla para que sea menos repugnante engullir para la opinión pública el “Impuestazo” al que nos someterán.

Hernando de Soto afirma que los países latinoamericanos, así como los africanos y del este europeo, no carecen de espíritu emprendedor (Soto, 2019), sino todo lo contrario, son una mina de ideas de cómo emprender negocios y eso se ve en cada tienda de venta de remedios yuyos, de chiperías, de verdulerías, talleres, carpinterías, cambalaches u otros pequeños negocios que proliferan en los barrios y ciudades, al punto de que en Paraguay el 97% de las empresas del país son Mipymes (www.5dias.com.py, 2019). Ese es el ámbito del mercado, donde cada individuo buscando su propio bienestar va satisfaciendo a las necesidades de los demás, es el proceso espontáneo de cooperación social que ha sido desarrollado desde tiempos inmemorables, generándose con él sus propias reglamentaciones. Soto coincide con John Hicks en el sentido de que esa forma del mercado solo logrará mayor eficiencia y productividad dentro de un marco de respeto y definición de la propiedad privada y la fortaleza del brazo fuerte de la ley para hacer cumplir los contratos, algo en consonancia con los neo-institucionalistas como Acemoglu y Robinson que tan en boga están por estos lares, al menos de la boca para afuera. Este marco institucional, históricamente fue suministrado por el Estado, así las ciudades Estados de Italia prosperaron bajo el amparo legal proporcionado por los príncipes quienes se beneficiaban con el aumento de la actividad comercial de las ciudades y con ello aumentaban los ingresos tributarios, sin necesidad de aumentar la tasa impositiva. Los príncipes proveían seguridad patrimonial, seguridad jurídica y facilidades de comunicación para el desarrollo del comercio, lo cual atraía a comerciantes de distintas partes del mundo que llegaban a invertir en aquellas ciudades como Florencia o Venecia (Hicks, 1984). Fenómeno similar se manifestó en la Inglaterra previa a la revolución industrial, el proceso de definición de la propiedad privada y la arraigada costumbre legal de la Common Law, había preparado el escenario para el desarrollo industrial, lo mismo había ocurrido en USA. Y debería haber ocurrido en Sudamérica, pero qué pasó entonces?

Existen sinnúmero de variables que pueden ser parte del diagnóstico, los que creen en el êtatism, dirán que es la ausencia del Estado uno de los problemas y clamarán por mayor presencia y por ende mayor socialismo, en el sentido de permitir al Estado conducir el uso que se le dará a la propiedad privada en el país mediante el intervencionismo que se exhibe con la legislación al estimular X sector, proteger a Y grupo empresarial, aplicar mayores impuestos a B, regular las actividades de A y por supuesto aumentar el gasto público en infraestructura y “obras sociales”.

Otros consideran que fue el paternalismo característico del país desde los tiempos del supremo dictador hasta la caída del último lo que ha impedido el desarrollo de un mercado competitivo y transformó al país en la patria contratista, que durante décadas se mantuvo con ayuda internacional, tierras fiscales y la construcción de las binacionales y su producción energética.

Hay aquellos que consideran que es la oligarquía enquistada en la cima del poder político la que mantiene al país en un sistema semifeudal en el que los más cercanos al poder se reparten las mejores tierras transformándose en terratenientes o latifundistas convirtiendo al país en la “Patria Rentista”.

Posiblemente los tres tengan razón, pero como diría Beltrand de Juvenell, el Estado hoy cumple el rol que ejercía la Iglesia en la edad media, y como los intelectuales eclesiásticos, hoy se tiene a los intelectuales del Estado, financiados por el mismo y coincidentemente buscan soluciones estatales en lugar de soluciones de mercado. Pues consideran que el hombre de negocios ofrece al público todo lo que el público desea comprar en la forma de bienes y servicios, deseo que se refleja en los precios de mercado, y por otro lado el intelectual trata de enseñar lo que está bien o mal y para él, algunos de los bienes que se ofrecen son cosas de ningún valor o no generan los valores que ellos consideran correctos, por lo que deberían ser disuadidos a dejarlos o a dar otros usos a los factores disponibles, esto hoy día asume el nombre de desigualdad social o uso social de los factores productivos. Para el intelectual, y en gran medida los estudiosos de ciencias humanas, el mundo de los negocios es un mundo de valores falsos, motivos bajos, por lo que siempre crucifican al capitalismo, sin embargo es palpable su inclinación o simpatía hacia las instituciones deficitarias, las industrias nacionalizadas financiadas por el Estado y los centros universitarios que dependen de los subsidios y donaciones con ineficiente administración que siempre será posible mejorar en las siguientes elecciones, con esa fe platónica, casi ciega en los planificadores (Jouvenell, 1973).

Hayek los consideraba en gran medida como proveedores de ideas de segunda mano, pero que habían accedido al favor de la élite dominante pues, todos los hombres comunes y la élite gobernante adquieren conciencia de las opiniones en boga por medio de ellos (Hayek).

Sin embargo, por lo general los intelectuales no suelen ser liberales pro mercado, pues en ese caso implica aceptar gran parte de las libertades ya logradas y por ello se los consideraría dentro de su entorno como apologistas del status quo. Es por ello que por lo general tienen esa inclinación por soluciones estatales, que llevan en un país como el nuestro, unos 209 años de evidencia empírica de que no se logran soluciones de ese modo.

Puede verse lo que expongo en los siguientes párrafos extraídos del reportaje:

El manifiesto recalca que con una presión fiscal del 10% es imposible pensar en un Estado presente y eficiente, por lo que insisten en la necesidad de tener un sistema tributario justo, que recaude mediante los impuestos directos, y que garantice el fin de la evasión y los injustos privilegios tributarios. Recuerda que el sistema tributario nacional es uno de los más injustos, lo que ha empujado al Gobierno a recurrir a préstamos externos para la crisis del Covid-19.

Sin embargo considero que tenemos un problema de diagnóstico en esta primera parte del manifiesto, pues el Estado paraguayo padece de aquel problema que se menciona en el clásico adagio “el que mucho abarca poco apaña” con innumerables estamentos para todo tipo de atribuciones que se otorga a sí mismo el Estado, pero sin proporcionar servicios decentes en lo que se suponen son funciones primordiales del Estado (Considerando lo expuesto antes al citar a Soto e Hicks). Es interesante el uso casi dialéctico de la expresión “presión fiscal del 10%”, basándose en el cálculo del total de recaudaciones tributarias dividido el PIB, cuando según los cálculos del Banco Mundial, el peso de los impuestos y contribuciones sobre la renta empresarial asciende al 35% (Doingbusiness, 2020).

Además, que según la propia CADEP, hemos sido siempre un país que no ha permitido el desarrollo de un mercado competitivo, un país marginal que está llegando recién al mundo competitivo. Por ello, aunque consciente de que los datos estadísticos pueden ser utilizados de acuerdo a la inclinación ideológica del investigador, he decido investigar un poco sobre los impuestos en los países que han logrado acumular capital y que hoy día se dan el lujo de ostentar un estado de bienestar costosísimo que es la envidia y el deseo de la mayoría de los amantes del êtatism. En los gráficos adjuntos podrán observar fenómenos similares en el Reino Unido, en Francia, Alemania, Suecia, Japón y USA, todos ellos han tenido un periodo de bajos impuestos que coincide con la época de la acumulación o aumento del stock de capital de dichos países, que considero, es la etapa necesaria para el desarrollo de la productividad y por ende de los aumentos de ingresos individuales subsecuentes.

Gráfico 1 – Historia de los impuestos en el Reino Unido al inicio de la revolución industrial y durante la misma, vemos un aumento a 24 y 20% durante las guerras napoleónicas (Hartwell, 1980).

Grafico 2 – Esto sería la evolución de impuestos en Alemania durante su periodo de capitalización (Spoerer, 2007).

Gráfico 3 – Evolución de impuestos en Francia en el periodo de acumulación de capital (Jatteau).

Gráfico 4 – Suecia y sus impuestos antes de instaurar su estado de bienestar (Henrekson & Mikael, 2015).

Gráfico 5 – Historia de los impuestos en USA.

Gráfico 6 – Japón durante el periodo de modernización (Ishi, 1988).

Gráfico 7 – Si desean mayor información sobre el tema pueden acceder a la información de Our World Data.

Sobre este punto me gustaría recalcar que nuestro país como gran parte de Sudamérica ha adoptado las ideas del capitalismo y los mercados libres casi con un siglo de atraso y lo hemos hecho de manera parcial, incompleta casi con displicencia, se liberó algunas actividades mercantiles, se liberó el acceso a la propiedad privada a algunos pocos y así sucesivamente una serie de errores que van desilusionando a los más entusiastas. Si bien le tengo poca fe al Estado, pues está compuesta por individuos que buscan sus propios beneficios como todos, no puedo comprender que sus ambiciones se limiten a ser la élite en un país “de morondanga” como diría Gabriel Ojeda. A los datos me remito, cualquiera que logre proyectarse a largo plazo, puede percibir que este pequeño país potencialmente podría elevar su posición en el concierto de naciones si se genera un marco institucional confiable y serio. Y he aquí uno de los problemas fundamentales cual es el respeto a la propiedad privada. Mientras no se tengan en claro la cantidad de propiedades físicas y la cantidad de títulos emitidos por catastro, el problema de la tierra seguirá, si continua siendo extremadamente difícil la titulación de propiedades, éstas no podrán ser capitalizadas y por tanto las personas de escasos recursos seguirán poseyendo propiedades que nunca podrán ser utilizadas como colaterales en caso de que alguna vez pretenda emprender, o algunos que ya emprenden, no podrán aumentar su inversión, sobre esto se puede ver más en la obra de Hernando de Soto ya mencionada y sobre los problemas de Catastros pueden encontrarlos aquí (Ayala Gomez & Meza, 2018). Y es que además de esa nebulosa burocrática de Catastro y Registro Público, tenemos el otro problema, que sí es mencionado por los intelectuales como vemos:

Otro de los puntos propone una reforma judicial y subraya que la Justicia está hundida en el cenagal de la sumisión política y la corrupción. Pide acabar con el tráfico de influencias y la perversión por el poder del dinero, “lo que nos convierten en un país inviable por la falta de seguridad jurídica” (www.ultimahora.com, 2020).

Y se refleja en el informe del Heritage Fund sobre libertad económica a continuación

Gráfico 8 – Aquí podemos observar los problemas que tenemos en lo que se refiere a justicia y derechos de propiedad privada, las líneas puntilladas corresponden a la media mundial, en el tamaño del Estado vemos que estamos mejor que la media según los analistas internacionales, y en mi opinión al menos debería dejarse así como está, ya que es uno de los pocos atractivos que ofrecemos para la inversión nacional y extranjera (Heritage, 2020).

De nada sirve que los grandes economistas del país estén orgullosos y con propiedad de la estabilidad macroeconómica de la que gozamos, mientras no se tenga seguridad jurídica o garantías que impidan de que la propiedad del inversionista ya sea nacional o extranjero sea cercenada o desmembrada en cualquier momento ante el primer vendaval político que se genere en este turbulento país o ante algún incumplimiento de contratos nada me asegure resarcimiento. La justicia poco confiable y la inestabilidad política son riesgos para el inversionista, éstos se consideran costos, lo cual influye de manera sustancial en el proceso de toma de decisiones de inversión. En el cuadro abajo tenemos algunos datos que nos dan la idea de cuál es nuestra posición según algunos indicadores sobre la facilidad para hacer negocios en el país, sin olvidar que somos un país, en términos económicos, marginal, es decir, existen como 125 países más atractivos para invertir y no solo por las dificultades institucionales, sino también respecto al mercado pequeño que tenemos, la poca calidad de la mano de obra, la mediterraneidad y la poca infraestructura, problemas estos que solo pueden ser superados con inversión, como se observa por ejemplo en las maquiladoras que muchos consideran que solo pagan 1%, sin embargo han proporcionado a la mano de obra local un know how interesante, antes ni se sabían que eran las EPIs, hoy día ya se sabe que debemos tener más ajustadores mecánicos, torneros, soldadores, electricistas, técnicos en automatización y no solo contadores y abogados.

Fíjese en las calificaciones que obtiene Paraguay, de 190 países, ocupamos el puesto 125. Uno debe tener un gran espíritu aventurero para arriesgar su dinero por estos lares. Observen, energía eléctrica que suele ser nuestra “fortaleza” en un análisis FODA, nos ubica en el puesto 109, por todos los problemas que tiene la ANDE, los laberintos burocráticos para obtener medidores, los constantes cortes en el suministro y un sinfín de problemas no solo de infraestructura sino de burocracia. Se puede observar allí que estamos en el puesto 126 entre 190 países en lo que corresponde a pago de impuestos, así es que la presión fiscal de 10% cuando comparamos con los países vecinos, parece sugerente, pero me temo que no estamos como para seguir engordando al elefante.

Gráfico 9 – Calificaciones Doingbusiness Paraguay 2020
Gráfico 10 – Puntuaciones Doingbusiness Paraguay 2020

En fin, no espero nada de los políticos, pues tienen el poder y buscan sus propios beneficios, pero viven en una burbuja, legislando para ellos, contra ellos y entre ellos. Solo me queda pensar que son más ambiciosos de lo que parecen, usando jerga futbolera, no pueden contentarse solamente en ser los campeones en un torneo de las inferiores, es momento de apuntar a las ligas mayores. Y por eso insto a los intelectuales, aquellos proveedores de ideas de segunda mano, que vuelvan a hacer sus diagnósticos correspondientes, pues considero que aún no hemos quemado la etapa de verdadera apertura de los mercados, del desarrollo de la competitividad de mercado y la acumulación de capital que precede al estado de bienestar que tanto anhelan.

Por Victor Ocampos.

Bibliografía

www.5dias.com.py. (15 de Enero de 2019). Recuperado el 10 de Agosto de 2020, de https://www.5dias.com.py/2019/01/mipymes-representan-el-97-de-las-empresas/

www.ultimahora.com. (13 de Julio de 2020). Recuperado el 10 de Agosto de 2020, de https://www.ultimahora.com/intelectuales-proponen-un-nuevo-modelo-desarrollo-economico-n2894701.html

Ayala Gomez, A., & Meza, V. (2018). catastro.gov.py. Recuperado el 7 de Agosto de 2020, de https://www.catastro.gov.py/site/14/Situacion-actual-del-Sistema-Catastral-Paraguayo.-Parametros-de-Eficiencia-Administrativa-Catastral

Doingbusiness. (2020). espanol.doingbusiness.org. Recuperado el 03 de Agosto de 2020, de https://espanol.doingbusiness.org/content/dam/doingBusiness/country/p/paraguay/PRY-LITE.pdf

Hartwell, R. M. (1980). Taxation in England during the industrial revelation. El Cato, 129-153.

Hayek, F. (s.f.). eleutera.org. Recuperado el 10 de Agosto de 2020, de http://www.eleutera.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Hayek-Los-Intelectuales-y-el-Socialismo.pdf

Henrekson, M., & Mikael, S. (2015). Swedish Taxation since 1862: An Overview. Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), 1-45.

Heritage. (2020). www.heritage.org. Recuperado el 8 de Agosto de 2020, de https://www.heritage.org/index/country/paraguay

Hicks, J. (1984). Una teoría de la historia económica. Buenos Aires: Hyspamerica Ediciones Argentina S.A.

Ishi, H. (1988). Historical Background of the Japanese Tax System. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 29, 1-20.

Jatteau, A. (s.f.). http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/. Recuperado el 11 de Agosto de 2020, de http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Historical%20evolution%20of%20income%20tax%20(Arthur%20Jatteau).pdf

Jouvenell, B. d. (1973). Los intelectuales europeos y el capitalismo. El capitalismo y los historiadores, 93-121.

Soto, H. d. (2019). El Misterio del Capital. Lima: Planeta.

Spoerer, M. (2007). The political economy of taxation in nineteenth century Germany. Researchgate Publications.

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