Orden en el caos

Orden en el caos

La predicción de los sucesos futuros será siempre una altiva motivación de cualquier esfuerzo en cuanto al estudio de su eficacia probabilística, pues saber lo que ocurrirá es crucial para tomar decisiones en ciertas situaciones de la vida. Una historia de la humanidad puede relatarnos cómo los videntes intentaban atinar sus predicciones a las personas, a los reinos para los cultivos, para fines políticos y económicos, asimismo para cuestiones personales.

Hoy día hablar de predicción generalmente se convierte en necesidad, otras veces en ambición y lo que más me encanta, en mero conocimiento; el saber puro está arraigada a la esencia misma de nuestra especie, es lo que nos hace humanos y es el combustible principal de encontrar respuestas más exactas y no respuestas probables o ambiguas.

Number 23
Cuadro
Jackson Pollock

Desde lanzar una moneda hasta saber cuándo se iniciará un huracán, es posible cuantificarlo y predecir el probable suceso que ocurrirá. No obstante, nunca sabremos lo que realmente ocurrirá, aunque podría estar concatenado a una sucesión de eventos fuerte o ligeramente ligados que implique finalmente el resultado del suceso final, esto muchas veces se presenta en un sistema caótico del comportamiento muestral.

Entonces ¿es posible o no predecir la continuación de todas las cosas? ¿Qué apostar en un juego de azar? ¿Mañana lloverá? ¿Subirán las bolsas de valores? ¿Cuándo se extinguirá la especie humana? Preguntas tan complejas podríamos resolverla con teorías matemáticas, preguntas que podrían salvaguardar la vida misma de las personas, en tal su importancia.

Antes de responder las preguntas precedentes, es conveniente antes que nada presentar la idea misma del motivo de algún suceso futuro. Podemos suponer que los acontecimientos ocurren por acción del “destino”, pero si ello ocurriese sería independiente a las variables de cambio y, por tanto, un futuro inmutable.

Esto significa que las definiciones de futuro y destino al fin y al cabo son similares, podríamos decir que futuro es el suceso que aún no ha ocurrido y destino el suceso que ocurrirá.

Cuando el meteorólogo y matemático estadounidense, Edward Lorenz, trabajaba en unas ecuaciones que esperaba que predijera el tiempo de la atmósfera en 1963, observó que la gráfica de tal ecuación tenía una forma compleja, pero con algún orden descifrable, tal gráfica se conoce como el atractor de Lorenz. Con palabras del mismísimo Lorenz (La esencia del caos, 1996):

En un momento dado, decidí repetir algunos de los cálculos con el fin de examinar con mayor detalle lo que estaba ocurriendo. Detuve el ordenador, tecleé una línea de números que había salido por la impresora un rato antes y lo puse en marcha otra vez. Me fui al vestíbulo a tomarme una taza de café y regresé al cabo de una hora, tiempo durante el cual el ordenador había simulado unos dos meses de tiempo meteorológico. Los números que salían por la impresora no tenían nada que ver con los anteriores.

Inmediatamente pensé que se había estropeado alguna válvula o que el ordenador tenía alguna otra avería, cosa nada infrecuente, pero antes de llamar a los técnicos decidí comprobar dónde se encontraba la dificultad, sabiendo que de esa forma podría acelerar la reparación. En lugar de una interrupción brusca, me encontré con que los nuevos valores repetían los anteriores en un principio, pero que enseguida empezaban a diferir, en una, en varias unidades, en la última cifra decimal, luego en la anterior y luego en la anterior. La verdad es que las diferencias se duplicaban en tamaño más o menos constantemente cada cuatro días, hasta que cualquier parecido con las cifras originales desaparecía en algún momento del segundo mes.

Con eso me bastó para comprender lo que ocurría: los números que yo había tecleado no eran los números originales exactos sino los valores redondeados que había dado a la impresora en un principio. Los errores redondeados iniciales eran los culpables: se iban amplificando constantemente hasta dominar la solución. Dicho con terminología de hoy: se trataba del caos.

De aquí nacería el conocido ejemplo del efecto mariposa: “el ligero aleteo de una mariposa se podría sentir al otro lado del mundo como un huracán”.

Atractor de Lorenz

Se ha comprobado que se necesitan miles de variables para conseguir una predictibilidad eficiente. El sistema dinámico es tan complejo que parece ser amorfa en cuanto a una estructura o algún orden. Aquí intervienen las matemáticas de manera elegante, con el estudio de las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes, donde se enuncia la posible solución a los fluidos de sistemas dinámicos con ecuaciones diferenciales complejas.

Se resalta el hecho de que este problema está catalogado como uno de los siete problemas del milenio de las matemáticas, en la que el Instituto Clay de Matemáticas desembolsa un valor de un millón de dólares para el que pueda resolver el problema. Como verán, como parece, no es sencillo.

Finalmente, ¿es posible predecir nuestro futuro con estas ecuaciones? ¿La humanidad ha alcanzado la cúspide de las aplicaciones de los conocimientos puros?

Full Fathom Five
Pintura de Jackson Pollock

Son interrogantes que aún intentar responderse, las herramientas de este siglo son precarios para resolver este problema tan complejo. Sólo sabemos que en el caos hay un orden.

Daniel Dávalos

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